How a possible Yellen departure could spark a fire under the Fed to cut its $4.5 trillion balance sheet

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/19/yellen-departure-could-spark-a-fire-und
BYJavier E. David
Sunday, 19 Mar 2017 | 9:14 AM ET
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It's often said that good things come to those who wait — but a bloated $4.5 trillion balance sheet might be a notable exception to that rule.

With the Federal Reserve facing a Herculean conundrum in unwinding its crisis-era monetary policy — and a likely leadership transition on the horizonGoldman Sachs suggested on Saturday the central bank could move early to reduce the vast sums of government and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) it holds on its books.

In a research note to clients, the bank pointed to the likelihood that President Donald Trumpmay "reshape the leadership" of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's powerful policy-making body, as the terms of Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Vice Chair Stanley Fischer expire in early 2018.

"This could be important for balance sheet policy because many Republican-leaning economists have criticized quantitative easing (QE) and have expressed a preference for rapid balance sheet rundown, perhaps even through asset sales," wrote Daan Struyven, a Goldman economist.

If the new appointments—especially the new chair—are thought to favor aggressive balance sheet normalization, perhaps even including asset sales, and if all decisions are left up to the incoming team, financial markets might experience heightened uncertainty during the transition."

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